Montana Free Press publishes first of three public opinion polls

So much of the work we do at Montana Free Press relies on good data. But for too long now, Montanans have lacked a reliable, Montana-based measure of public opinion on the issues shaping our state. National polls often fail to capture Montanans’ nuanced perspectives, and election-season horse race surveys tend to prioritize forecasting political outcomes over deeper questions about public concerns. 

To address this gap in understanding public attitudes, MTFP, in partnership with the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, launched a statewide public opinion poll. We’re calling it Montana Insights, and we anticipate it will be the first of three public interest surveys we conduct throughout the year. 

“Conducting and publicly releasing a poll of this depth is very rare,” said Jessi Bennion, an assistant teaching professor of political science at Montana State University who serves as one of Montana Insights’ advisers. “Having robust and highly vetted evidence of policy attitudes gives us a picture of our politics that we have not yet seen before.”

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Bennion is among five advisory board members from a range of disciplines who contributed time and expertise to this effort: 

• Lee Banville, director of the University of Montana School of Journalism, provided insight on poll design, media ethics and political reporting. 
• Desi Small-Rodriguez, an assistant professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who originally hails from Lame Deer, contributed expertise in social science research and survey structure. 
• Rob Saldin, director of UM’s Mansfield Ethics and Public Affairs Program, advised on analyzing poll results and incorporating them into accurate and contextualized reporting. 
• Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, aided in interpreting voter data and advising on strategies to communicate findings effectively.  

The project is designed to provide Montanans and our leaders with data-driven insights into the priorities, concerns and perspectives of people across the state.

WHY WE CONDUCTED THIS POLL

Public opinion polling is a valuable tool for understanding what matters most to the public. Done well, polls provide insights beyond anecdotes or debates playing out online or on social media. In recent years, large-scale polling focused on Montana has been relatively scarce. Our goal is to reestablish a reliable, nonpartisan baseline for tracking public sentiment in the state.

By measuring attitudes on a range of issues — including the economy, health care, education, and governance — the poll will serve as a public resource for citizens, policymakers, journalists and community leaders who seek to better understand the greatest needs and concerns of Montanans today.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

We worked with the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, one of the nation’s most respected nonpartisan polling institutions, to ensure a broad and accurate representation of Montana’s population.

• Survey period: Jan. 24 to Feb. 14, 2025
• Sample size: 919 Montana adults, age 18 and up
• Survey methods: A statewide RDD (random digit dial) sample contacted through a combination of live telephone interviews and text-to-web surveys to reach a diverse cross-section of respondents to ensure representativeness of all Montanans
• Demographic weighting: Data was adjusted to ensure it reflects Montana’s population in terms of sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, registered voter status, number of adults in the household and party identification
• Margin of error: ±4.1 percentage points, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population

Unlike election-focused polling, this survey was not limited to registered or likely voters. Instead, it aims to capture a comprehensive picture of all Montanans, including those who may not regularly participate in elections but still have opinions on the issues affecting their lives.

“General population surveys are used in public opinion polling when we want to investigate issues, attitudes, and behaviors that pertain to the entire population under study. A general population survey takes a sample of adults from a known population, and results from this sample can be generalized back to the population as a whole,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. 

Koning said that while pollsters and the media often talk about registered or likely voters in pre-election polling, taking a sample of all adults within a population provides critical insights into how politics and policy shape and affect people’s everyday lives.

WHAT MAKES THIS POLL USEFUL 

This poll is one of the most in-depth and methodologically rigorous public opinion surveys conducted in Montana in recent years.

• Independent and nonpartisan: As a nonprofit news organization, MTFP is committed to objectivity and transparency. This survey was designed with rigorous scientific standards and free from partisan influence.
• Montana-focused: Unlike national polls that may not reflect the state’s unique concerns, this survey is tailored to Montana’s people, economy and policy landscape.
• A tool for better decision-making: Whether you’re an elected official, a journalist, a nonprofit leader or an engaged citizen, this data can help inform policy discussions, improve news coverage and ensure that decision-making aligns with public priorities.

HOW TO INTERPRET AND USE THESE FINDINGS

Public opinion is not static, and this poll serves as a baseline for future research — a starting point to track changes in Montanans’ attitudes over time. While no single poll can capture the full complexity of public sentiment or attitudes, this survey offers a well-researched, statistically sound snapshot of how Montanans feel about major issues today.

We encourage thoughtful, data-driven discussions based on these findings. Policymakers and community leaders can use this information to better respond to public needs, and citizens can use it to hold leaders accountable and ensure their voices are heard in the policy-making process. 

A COMMITMENT TO PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING

MTFP’s mission is to provide Montanans with the information they need to make informed decisions about their communities and their future. This poll is another step toward fulfilling that mission.

We will continue to track and analyze public opinion in Montana, ensuring that the perspectives of Montanans remain front and center in discussions about the state’s future.

For full methodology details and key findings, visit our dedicated webpage.

We welcome your thoughts and feedback. Let us know what issues matter most to you, and how we can continue to bring you the most relevant and accurate public-interest journalism possible.