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November 20, 2025
Is there really an exodus from the blue states? Gov. Greg Gianforte seems to think so.
Accepting the position of chair of the Republican Governors Association on Nov. 17, Gianforte suggested that states with Democratic governors were experiencing an exodus while Republican-led states thrived.
“The stakes could not be higher,” Gianforte told his GOP peers. “States with Republican governors are thriving, with our citizens seeing lower costs, safer streets, and a higher quality of life. That stands in stark contrast to the many failing states led by Democrats, places Americans are fleeing.” RGA is a political organization focused on flipping states red in 2026.
A look at migration data for Montana suggests Gianforte might be onto something, though perhaps with a bit of an asterisk in the context of Montana.
A look at the top 10 originating states for Montana newcomers reveals that four have Democratic trifectas, meaning Democrats control the governor’s office and both branches of the state Legislature. Washington, California, Colorado and Oregon were the former homes of 16,312 new Montana residents between 2018 and 2022, according to the most recent U.S. Census data. All told, 47,165 people moved to Montana during the period.
The rest of the list is pretty red: Idaho, Florida, Wyoming, Texas and North Dakota are Republican trifectas that produced a combined 9,108 new Montana residents. Arizona — with its democratic governor and Republican Legislature — contributed 1,637 residents.
Population and miles play a part. Washington, which has 8 million people and is less than 100 miles away, was the last place that 5,106 new Montanans called home. California, the country’s most populous state at 39.6 million, is a notable source of newcomers for many states because even small percentages translate into big numbers, in Montana’s case 5,103. Nonetheless, census data shows California is tops for overall net out-migration. New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts round out the top five.
Some data suggests Montana newcomers tend to vote Republican. As the election data service L2 has calculated, there were three Republican voters moving to Montana for every two Democratic voters moving here from October 2008 to May 2024.
Those numbers are derived by L2 from tracking Montana newcomers from states where voters are required to declare a party when registering. There are notable gaps, caused by states like Montana that don’t require party declaration and states like Washington that only record party affiliation at the county level and only for presidential primaries.
— Tom Lutey
Caught between FOMO and frostbite
Tired of being one of the very last states to vote in primary presidential elections, Montana is again debating whether it should go to the polls in early spring or even late winter.
Fear of missing out is a powerful thing, legislators weighing the issue this week concurred, but so is February ground so frozen it can’t be punctured with campaign signs. The discussion took place at the Legislature’s interim State Administration and Veterans Affairs Committee on Nov. 17.
“If we do it too early, you know, in line with the first primaries, talking about January or February, I would agree that that would generally be too early,” said Rep. Lukas Schubert, a Kalispell Republican. “For us, for any individual that is trying to campaign, door-knocking, putting up signs, if it’s negative-degree weather or having massive snowstorms, which would be a hindrance to that.”
Likely, grassroots campaigning would lose ground to well-financed political committees who can afford TV ad buys, Schubert said.
Montana’s dead-last distinction for presidential primaries is shared with four other states that also vote on the first Tuesday in June.
Sen. Theresa Manzella, R-Hamilton, suggested moving the primary to early May and combining it with other spring ballot issues, like school levies.
Keaton Sunchild, of the advocacy group Western Native Voice, said there’s support for an earlier presidential primary among American Indian tribes who think an earlier vote might get Indigenous and rural issues added to the early campaign conversations of presidential candidates.
Montana has debated scheduling its presidential primary earlier in the year at least since 1999, but no proposal has ever survived both the Legislature and the governor’s desk. As a result, Montana remains one of the last states to vote.
In 2007, the Legislature voted for an earlier presidential primary election, but then-Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer vetoed the bill, arguing that a special early primary was a waste of money. Republicans then organized their own 2008 February Super Tuesday caucus to identify the party’s pick for president, the assumption being that voters would follow their lead in the June election, electing their party’s pick for president.
Only credentialed Republican officers could participate in the 2008 caucus, not the public. The state’s Republican convention delegates were expected to be bound to the caucus winner. The caucus vote was won by Republican Mitt Romney, who was out of the race months later when Montanans voted for John McCain, the last Republican standing.
Sitting out Super Tuesday in 2008 cost Montana Democrats very little. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were still competing for state delegates into June of that year. Obama made several stops in Montana.
In 2019, the state House passed a bill to move the primary to March, but the bill stalled in the Senate. A 2021 attempt failed to pass out of committee.
Earlier still, former Republican Gov. Marc Racicot in 1999 backed a Western Regional Primary, the thought being that if enough Western states pooled their small number of delegate votes, candidates for president would have to take note. The proposal died in the House as the Legislature wrapped up. The following year, Racicot was chair of the National Republican Party, promoting the campaign of George W. Bush, a fellow governor.
— Tom Lutey