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January 22, 2026
Independent voters are having their moment in the spotlight as (still) University of Montana President Seth Bodnar eyes a potential U.S. Senate run without a major party affiliation.
Bodnar announced his pending resignation Wednesday from the top post at the flagship university in Missoula. He didn’t mention a departure date, or a possible Senate run that dominated headlines about a week earlier, when a text message allegedly from former U.S. senator and Democratic standard-bearer Jon Tester praised Bodnar and declared the party brand “poison” to Tester’s previous campaigns.
A spokesperson for Bodnar told Montana Free Press on Jan. 12 that Bodnar wouldn’t be discussing his campaign ahead of announcing it. Capitolized notes two important dates for independent candidates: Feb. 17 is the earliest a Montana candidate not affiliated with a major party can make a declaration and oath of candidacy. May 26 is the deadline for gathering enough signatures of registered voters to qualify for the general election ballot, according to the Montana Secretary of State’s election calendar. Bodnar would need signatures equal to 4% of the vote for the previous U.S. Senate race, which would be about 12,800 signatures, plus slippage for signatures that turn out not to be valid.
The lodestar for independent U.S. Senate campaigns is Dan Osborn’s candidacy in Nebraska’s 2024 U.S. Senate race. Osborn outraised Republican incumbent Deb Fischer by several million, while PACs spent $20 million either supporting Osborn or opposing Fischer, according to the Federal Election Commission. Nebraska Democrats didn’t have a candidate in the general election, which was won by Fischer. Osborn picked up 46.6% of the vote.
The number of people nationwide identifying as independent in polls is increasing, according to Gallup, which found that 45% of 13,000 people polled during 2025 identified as independent. Gallup, which has been polling on party affiliation since 1988, said 2025 was the high mark for independents and that a majority of millennials and Gen Z voters — a group born between 1981 and 2007 — identified as independent at 56% and 54%, respectively.
Montana public polling on independents is a little sparse, but there are some known details. The percentage of voters identifying as independent is more than those identifying as Democrats and fairly even with voters identifying Republicans. Fabrizio Ward, which polled Montanans for AARP in 2024, found that 38% of 1,064 likely voters polled identified as independent. In that same poll, 39% of likely voters identified as Republicans and 24% identified as Democrats. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4%. The poll had current Republican U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy winning the 2024 U.S. Senate race over then-incumbent Democrat Tester, which is what happened in that election.
In 2020, a Montana State University-Bozeman poll had 31% of 738 of likely voters and nonvoters identifying as independent, 33.6% as Republican and 22.6% as Democrats.
And, in 2017, Gravis Marketing had 37% of likely Montana voters identifying as independent, 37% Republican and 26% as Democrats.
— Tom Lutey
Ellsworth update
Former Republican state Senate president Jason Ellsworth was arraigned on a misdemeanor official misconduct charge Thursday in Lewis and Clark County District Court.
Ellsworth is alleged to have awarded $170,100 in government work to a longtime business associate without soliciting competitive bids. Prosecutors say the Hamilton Republican divided the work into two contracts to avoid having to put the work out to bid. Ellsworth maintains he’s innocent and pleaded that way in court Thursday.
The case roiled the 2025 Montana Legislature as the accusations, brought by Ellsworth successor Republican Senate President Matt Regier and Rhonda Knudsen, the mother of Montana’s Republican Attorney General Austin Knudsen, were investigated and eventually referred to the attorney general for prosecution.
Arrangements are a basic first step in alleged criminal matters. Proceedings took a turn Thursday when district court Judge Christopher Abbott denied an attempt by Ellsworth to vacate the arraignment or stay proceedings based on legislative immunity.
The gist of Ellsworth’s argument is that because his actions were legislative in nature, he is protected from criminal prosecution. Ellsworth said in court filings that he was acting as Senate president and chair of the Senate Select Committee on Judicial Oversight and Reform when he awarded the contracts for tracking how the judicial system put laws drafted by the select committee to work.
Abbott ruled that Ellsworth hadn’t proved that legislative immunity bars arraignment, but the judge said the arguments would be considered promptly for a ruling later.
The court earlier suspended Ellsworth from serving as senator, pending the outcome of his case. The maximum sentence for misdemeanor official misconduct is six months in jail.
— Tom Lutey
Et cetera
More Democrats are organizing campaigns for the U.S. Senate. Kate McLaughlin (not the journalist) announced her candidacy for U.S. Senate last week on social media and followed through by registering her committee with federal election officials.
“I think we have too many politicians who are representing corporations and special interests and not the people that they are supposed to serve,” McLaughlin tells viewers on Instagram and Facebook.
A native of Vermont, McLaughlin said on her website that she’s lived in Montana since 2001. Her campaign is “families first,” the website says. The details in her bio are scant, but there is a virtual townhall planned for Feb.10.
The addition of McLaughlin brings the total number of Democrats with campaign committees to five. Two-term incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines is seeking re-election. They have reported less than $27,000 cash on hand between them. For perspective, the smallest campaign purse of any Montana Senate candidate in the last decade was Republican Matt Rosendale’s $5.7 million in 2018.
— Tom Lutey