{"id":241713,"date":"2025-03-06T10:56:17","date_gmt":"2025-03-06T17:56:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/montanafreepress.org\/?p=241713"},"modified":"2025-03-06T10:56:25","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T17:56:25","slug":"montana-ag-producers-expect-challenges-with-trumps-new-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/montanafreepress.org\/2025\/03\/06\/montana-ag-producers-expect-challenges-with-trumps-new-tariffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Montana ag producers expect challenges with Trump\u2019s new tariffs\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the beef business, a cow can be born in Montana and cross the Canadian border twice before it\u2019s processed. Tariffs both ways could make that an expensive cow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we have Montana feeder cattle that originated in Montana, fed in Alberta and then was sent back to the United States for processing, what\u2019s the impact there?\u201d said Turk Stovall, first vice president of the Montana Stockgrowers Association.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, Stovall and other leaders from the Stockgrowers Association were in Washington, D.C., to share their tariff concerns with Montana\u2019s federal delegation. The Trump administration’s new tariffs have the potential to disrupt this regional ag economy for producers of beef and other goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s in effect,\u201d Stovall told Montana Free Press on Wednesday. \u201cHow long it\u2019s going to be in effect, we just don\u2019t know. It’s the decision of our administration. Some people are just choosing to wait on that decision. Others don’t have the ability to wait. Livestock eats and drinks every day.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s those unknowns that are vexing Montana ag producers in these early days of the Trump administration tariffs, which took effect<\/a> Tuesday. The tariffs impose a 25% tax on most goods coming from Canada and Mexico, as well as additional tariffs on Chinese goods. Almost immediately, those countries announced retaliatory tariffs<\/a> that include agricultural goods. By Wednesday, the United States carved out a month-long tariff exemption for a specific industry: automakers<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his address to Congress on March 4, Trump asked farmers to \u201cbear with me\u201d as this tariff dispute commences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this movement in such a short amount of time leaves ag producers wondering what new developments will take place as tariffs start hitting their books. One Reuters report<\/a> quoted an Alberta feedlot owner who said a truckload of fattened cattle heading south could be tagged with a $28,000 bill due to tariffs. Canada exports most of its beef, mostly to U.S. buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt’s the decision of our administration. Some people are just choosing to wait on that decision. Others don’t have the ability to wait. Livestock eats and drinks every day.\u201d <\/p>Turk Stovall, Montana Stockgrowers Association<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n<\/span>\n\n\n

Stovall said Montana\u2019s elected officials in D.C. have asked for communications \u201cvirtually daily\u201d about impacts on farmers and ranchers. At this stage, much of the talk is on potential impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s just a lot of uncertainty of what is the right decision,\u201d Stovall said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grain producers are concerned about the costs of importing potash, a key fertilizer ingredient. Around 85% of potash comes from Canada for American producers. The American Farm Bureau Federation issued a statement<\/a> from its president, Zippy Duvall, warning about potash costs and saying the trade war is likely to take a toll, as producers are already in the red.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor the third straight year, farmers are losing money on almost every major crop planted,\u201d Duvall\u2019s statement said. \u201cAdding even more costs and reducing markets for American agricultural goods could create an economic burden some farmers may not be able to bear.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Klayton Lohr, president of the Montana Grain Growers Association, told MTFP that conversations centered on tariffs when he was in Denver last week at the Commodity Classic<\/a> convention. A fourth-generation farmer near Devon, Montana, Lohr estimated that fertilizer prices could rise by $100 or $200 per ton, mostly due to tariffs on potash. But those aren\u2019t the only impacts he\u2019s watching for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI know of a farmer up in my area who sold some durum grain up to Canada, and it was right there in the contract that if the tariffs went into place, the contract was null and void\u201d due to difficulties agreeing on a price, Lohr said on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And for equipment purchases, Lohr said Canadian sellers are often his first call if he can\u2019t get what he needs locally. He operates a few dozen miles from the Canadian border, and he\u2019s waiting to see how tariffs and retaliatory measures by Canada will affect those purchases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lisa Schmidt is a Conrad-area rancher and member of the Golden Triangle Resource Council. She runs a smaller ranching operation and relies on direct sales rather than commodity markets. But she\u2019s working on another part of the ag supply chain that could be hit by tariffs. She\u2019s in the early stages of renovating a historic Conrad building into a manufacturing kitchen and packaging site. She said her construction suppliers are bracing for higher prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAfter the November election, my electrician calls me and he said, \u2018If you want to buy the electrical stuff, you better buy it now because my supplier sent me a note that in three weeks we\u2019re raising prices in anticipation of these tariffs,\u2019\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lohr, with the Montana Grain Growers Association, noted that producers have been through this before. He recalled the previous Trump administration\u2019s trade war with the same countries. In response to what the administration called \u201cunjustified retaliatory tariffs,\u201d the USDA announced in 2019 a relief package for farmers<\/a> worth $16 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lohr said this was a crucial step to keep producers in business, and he\u2019s glad the administration made the move in 2019. He\u2019s hopeful producers won\u2019t get left in bad financial shape due to tariffs. In Denver last week, he felt reassured by a speech given by Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, who mentioned the rollout of a $20 billion natural disaster relief package that was passed in the waning months<\/a> of the Biden administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cShe did say that no matter what, they weren\u2019t going to forget about us,\u201d Lohr recalled from Rollins\u2019 comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With or without additional aid, he\u2019s also concerned about the perception that his industry is getting during these financial struggles. One perception is that outsiders view that kind of relief as a kind of welfare, as Lohr put it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another, perhaps more important challenge, Lohr said, is whether younger farmers and ranchers will continue to view the work as worthwhile in these financial conditions. The average age of farmers has been increasing and was 58 in 2022, according to the most recent USDA survey<\/a> (in Montana, the average age of a farmer is 59).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith that situation, that\u2019s why you see so many farms not being passed onto the next generation,\u201d Lohr said. \u201cThere isn\u2019t the cash flow there to support a family anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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